The transition to green hydrogen threatened by rare metals and geopolitical tensions

The development of green hydrogen, often presented as a key solution for decarbonizing industry and transport, is heavily dependent on rare metals such as neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. These elements enhance the performance of electrolyzers, fuel cells, and permanent magnets used in hydrogen technologies. However, their supply poses a major challenge: more than 70% of extraction and nearly 85% of global refining are concentrated in China. This dependence exposes importing economies to geopolitical risks, as demonstrated by past trade restrictions or recent disruptions in the Red Sea and Myanmar.

A recent study used artificial intelligence models to anticipate the impact of geopolitical tensions on the prices of these metals. The results reveal that an increase in the costs of terbium or neodymium could raise the price of green hydrogen by 5 to 9%, making some projects less profitable. Countries without local refining capacity, such as those in North Africa or the Middle East, are particularly vulnerable to delays and additional costs.

To secure this transition, experts recommend diversifying supply sources, investing in recycling, and developing technologies that are less dependent on these metals. Without these measures, the promise of clean and autonomous energy could face new forms of dependence, as strategic as those it seeks to replace.

Content References

Official Reference

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-12907-3

Title: A foresight study on the geopolitical vulnerabilities of the rare earth supply chain in securing green hydrogen

Journal: Environmental Earth Sciences

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: İsmail Hilali; Mehmet Akif İlkhan; Nergiz Ülker